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The Big Bet
Prediction Markets and the Future of Democracy
Formats and Prices
- On Sale
- Jan 26, 2027
- Page Count
- 336 pages
- Publisher
- Basic Books
- ISBN-13
- 9781541608283
Price
$18.99Price
$24.99 CADFormat
Format:
- ebook $18.99 $24.99 CAD
- Hardcover $30.00 $40.00 CAD
Preorder from Retailers:
For many, Trump’s 2024 victory over Kamala Harris was a shock. He won the popular vote. He won decisively. But for those following political prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, this outcome was entirely expected. In recent years, prediction markets have become more accurate than mainstream polls, catapulting them from a niche curiosity to a mainstream source for political intelligence, as well as massive profits.
The Big Bet traces how prediction markets developed, how they are changing our world, and what they mean for the future of democratic self-governance.
Political betting has existed since the Middle Ages, when citizens and even prelates would wager on the outcome of papal conclaves. What's new is the scale, the speed, and the stakes. Modern, blockchain-based prediction markets are multibillion-dollar businesses with minimal regulation. Do they promote healthy democratic engagement, or do they commodify politics, distort public opinion, and erode trust in governmental institutions? What happens when those tasked with safeguarding democracy possess financial stakes in its volatility?
Drawing on deep expertise across finance, policy, and history, Auerbach argues that political prediction markets are not an anomaly. They are the logical endpoint of a society that has applied market capitalism to every aspect of life, including its own governance.
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“Michael Auerbach has one of the most original minds I’ve ever encountered—and an uncanny instinct for what’s coming next. In The Big Bet, he explores the past, present, and future of the prediction market, a phenomenon that is reshaping our world in real time, and in startling ways. This is a dazzling and entertaining book, full of keen insights and arresting anecdotes. But it is also an urgent warning about what we might gamble away if we become a society that wagers on everything. Democracy itself is at stake.”Patrick Radden Keefe, New York Times bestselling author of Say Nothing and Empire of Pain
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“Every generation or so, the world experiences a moment where one can see exactly where the bus is headed and nobody will touch the wheel. This is one of those moments. Michael Auerbach has written the most honest account of where prediction markets are taking us. The Big Bet is brilliant, troubling, and almost impossible to put down.”Scott Galloway, #1 New York Times bestselling author of The Algebra of Wealth and Notes on Being a Man
